Carnell TateR

TEN · WR · bye 9 · age — · sample: no NFL games yet — prior-based

R — rookie prior. no NFL games yet. Projection comes from historical rookie seasons of players drafted at a similar slot and position (a “draft-slot prior”). Wide range by construction.

Rank #69 overall · WR30 · 13.3 of 17 games expected

Simulated season-total distribution

10,000 simulated 2× PPR outcomes — the bars are how often each point range occurred. Trust the median more than the band width (see methodology).

Percentiles

Projected season total at each percentile (points).

5th	35
10th · floor	92
25th	179
50th · median	237
75th	281
90th · ceiling	317
95th	338

Value over replacement & market

VOR = points above a freely-available WR in a 10-team league.

VOR (median)	1.7
VOR floor / ceiling	-143.2 / 81.6
Overall / positional rank	#69 · WR30
ADP (proxy)	62.2
Value vs ADP	−6.8

ADP: Fantasy Football Calculator · 2× PPR uses the PPR list as a proxy

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M1c-roles-v0.4.0 · 10,000 sims/player · build 69b6671 · generated 2026-07-24T03:50:47Z · Data: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0)