Updated Oct 3, 2026
Home dogs of a touchdown or more
SYS-0001 v1 · Side · candidateTake the home team against the spread when it is getting 7 or more points.
Criteria, every one must hold: home spread (points on the home team) >= 7. Side: home.
Backtest
2016 to 2024, graded at the closing consensus line
101/19152.9%
+1.03u ROI +0.5%
4 pushes
Holdout
2025, untouched, graded at the closing consensus line
18/2766.7%
+7.37u ROI +27.3%
Live
2026, graded at the best line when flagged
Not registered, no live plays
Live plays
Only a registered system flags live plays.
Holdout plays, 2025
| Game | Side | Line | Price | Final | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 DAL at WAS | home | +8.5 | +100 | 30-23 | win | +1.00u |
| 2025 W17 DEN at KC | home | +13.5 | -115 | 20-13 | win | +0.87u |
| 2025 W17 DET at MIN | home | +7 | +100 | 10-23 | win | +1.00u |
| 2025 W17 LA at ATL | home | +7.5 | -118 | 24-27 | win | +0.85u |
| 2025 W17 NE at NYJ | home | +12.5 | +100 | 42-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W16 BUF at CLE | home | +10.5 | -110 | 23-20 | win | +0.91u |
| 2025 W16 PHI at WAS | home | +7 | +100 | 29-18 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W14 DEN at LV | home | +8.5 | -110 | 24-17 | win | +0.91u |
| 2025 W14 LA at ARI | home | +9.5 | -110 | 45-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W14 SEA at ATL | home | +7 | -120 | 37-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W13 LA at CAR | home | +10 | -110 | 28-31 | win | +0.91u |
| 2025 W12 NE at CIN | home | +7.5 | -112 | 26-20 | win | +0.89u |
| 2025 W12 SEA at TEN | home | +12.5 | -105 | 30-24 | win | +0.95u |
| 2025 W11 BAL at CLE | home | +7.5 | -115 | 23-16 | win | +0.87u |
| 2025 W11 GB at NYG | home | +7.5 | -110 | 27-20 | win | +0.91u |
| 2025 W10 BUF at MIA | home | +8.5 | -115 | 13-30 | win | +0.87u |
| 2025 W10 DET at WAS | home | +8.5 | -115 | 44-22 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W9 BAL at MIA | home | +7.5 | +100 | 28-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W9 LAC at TEN | home | +10 | -108 | 27-20 | win | +0.93u |
| 2025 W8 BUF at CAR | home | +7 | -105 | 40-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W7 GB at ARI | home | +7 | -105 | 27-23 | win | +0.95u |
| 2025 W6 DEN at NYJ | home | +7.5 | -120 | 13-11 | win | +0.83u |
| 2025 W6 LA at BAL | home | +7 | -115 | 17-3 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W6 PHI at NYG | home | +7 | +100 | 17-34 | win | +1.00u |
| 2025 W5 DET at CIN | home | +10.5 | -118 | 37-24 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2025 W4 GB at DAL | home | +7 | -115 | 40-40 | win | +0.87u |
| 2025 W3 GB at CLE | home | +8.5 | -118 | 10-13 | win | +0.85u |
Backtest plays, 2016 to 2024
| Game | Side | Line | Price | Final | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 LAC at LV | home | +7 | -102 | 34-20 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2024 W18 SEA at LA | home | +7.5 | -110 | 30-25 | win | +0.91u |
| 2024 W18 WAS at DAL | home | +7 | -112 | 23-19 | win | +0.89u |
| 2024 W17 IND at NYG | home | +7.5 | -108 | 33-45 | win | +0.93u |
| 2024 W16 DET at CHI | home | +7 | -110 | 34-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2024 W15 BAL at NYG | home | +16.5 | -108 | 35-14 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2024 W15 WAS at NO | home | +7.5 | -108 | 20-19 | win | +0.93u |
| 2024 W12 DET at IND | home | +7 | +102 | 24-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2024 W12 KC at CAR | home | +11 | -108 | 30-27 | win | +0.93u |
| 2024 W11 HOU at DAL | home | +7.5 | -120 | 34-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2024 W10 MIN at JAX | home | +7 | +100 | 12-7 | win | +1.00u |
| 2024 W10 PHI at DAL | home | +7.5 | -112 | 34-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2024 W9 NO at CAR | home | +7 | -102 | 22-23 | win | +0.98u |
| 2024 W8 BAL at CLE | home | +7.5 | -110 | 24-29 | win | +0.91u |
| 2024 W8 KC at LV | home | +9 | -108 | 27-20 | win | +0.93u |
| 2024 W8 NYJ at NE | home | +7 | -110 | 22-25 | win | +0.91u |
| 2024 W4 KC at LAC | home | +7.5 | -112 | 17-10 | win | +0.89u |
| 2023 W18 DAL at WAS | home | +13 | -105 | 38-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W17 SF at WAS | home | +14 | -105 | 27-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W16 BUF at LAC | home | +13 | -115 | 24-22 | win | +0.87u |
| 2023 W15 KC at NE | home | +10 | -108 | 27-17 | push | +0.00u |
| 2023 W15 SF at ARI | home | +12.5 | -110 | 45-29 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W13 MIA at WAS | home | +8.5 | -108 | 45-15 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W12 KC at LV | home | +9 | -110 | 31-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W12 MIA at NYJ | home | +9.5 | +100 | 34-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W12 SF at SEA | home | +7 | -108 | 31-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W11 DAL at CAR | home | +11 | -110 | 33-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2023 W8 BAL at ARI | home | +9.5 | -110 | 31-24 | win | +0.91u |
| 2023 W8 KC at DEN | home | +7 | -118 | 9-24 | win | +0.85u |
| 2023 W8 PHI at WAS | home | +7 | -110 | 38-31 | push | +0.00u |
| 2023 W7 BUF at NE | home | +7.5 | -110 | 25-29 | win | +0.91u |
| 2023 W7 SF at MIN | home | +7 | -115 | 17-22 | win | +0.87u |
| 2023 W6 SF at CLE | home | +9.5 | -105 | 17-19 | win | +0.95u |
| 2023 W4 KC at NYJ | home | +9.5 | -110 | 23-20 | win | +0.91u |
| 2023 W3 DAL at ARI | home | +11.5 | -110 | 16-28 | win | +0.91u |
| 2023 W2 SF at LA | home | +7.5 | -115 | 30-23 | win | +0.87u |
| 2022 W18 DAL at WAS | home | +7.5 | -110 | 6-26 | win | +0.91u |
| 2022 W18 KC at LV | home | +9 | -105 | 31-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2022 W17 DAL at TEN | home | +14 | -110 | 27-13 | push | +0.00u |
| 2022 W17 SF at LV | home | +10 | -107 | 37-34 | win | +0.93u |
| 2022 W16 BUF at CHI | home | +8 | -100 | 35-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2022 W16 TB at ARI | home | +7.5 | -113 | 19-16 | win | +0.89u |
| 2022 W15 KC at HOU | home | +14.5 | -120 | 30-24 | win | +0.83u |
| 2022 W15 PHI at CHI | home | +8.5 | -106 | 25-20 | win | +0.94u |
| 2022 W14 KC at DEN | home | +8.5 | -103 | 34-28 | win | +0.97u |
| 2022 W14 PHI at NYG | home | +7.5 | -115 | 48-22 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2022 W13 CLE at HOU | home | +7.5 | -102 | 27-14 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2022 W13 SEA at LA | home | +7 | -118 | 27-23 | win | +0.85u |
| 2022 W12 BUF at DET | home | +10 | -116 | 28-25 | win | +0.86u |
| 2022 W11 SF at ARI | home | +10 | -113 | 38-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2022 W9 BUF at NYJ | home | +11 | -114 | 17-20 | win | +0.88u |
| 2022 W9 PHI at HOU | home | +14 | -113 | 29-17 | win | +0.89u |
| 2022 W7 TB at CAR | home | +13 | -107 | 3-21 | win | +0.93u |
| 2022 W6 TB at PIT | home | +10 | -113 | 18-20 | win | +0.89u |
| 2022 W2 CIN at DAL | home | +7.5 | -122 | 17-20 | win | +0.82u |
| 2022 W1 IND at HOU | home | +7 | -107 | 20-20 | win | +0.93u |
| 2021 W18 IND at JAX | home | +14 | -110 | 11-26 | win | +0.91u |
| 2021 W18 KC at DEN | home | +11.5 | -110 | 28-24 | win | +0.91u |
| 2021 W18 TEN at HOU | home | +10.5 | -115 | 28-25 | win | +0.87u |
| 2021 W17 LA at BAL | home | +7 | -101 | 20-19 | win | +0.99u |
| 2021 W17 TB at NYJ | home | +14.5 | -110 | 28-24 | win | +0.91u |
| 2021 W16 LAC at HOU | home | +13.5 | -114 | 29-41 | win | +0.88u |
| 2021 W16 TB at CAR | home | +11.5 | -117 | 32-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W15 ARI at DET | home | +13 | -109 | 12-30 | win | +0.92u |
| 2021 W15 DAL at NYG | home | +11.5 | +108 | 21-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W15 GB at BAL | home | +9.5 | -116 | 31-30 | win | +0.86u |
| 2021 W15 MIN at CHI | home | +7 | +102 | 17-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W14 SEA at HOU | home | +10 | -116 | 33-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W13 ARI at CHI | home | +7.5 | +104 | 33-22 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W13 IND at HOU | home | +10 | -106 | 31-0 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W13 MIN at DET | home | +7 | -107 | 27-29 | win | +0.93u |
| 2021 W13 TB at ATL | home | +11 | -108 | 30-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W12 BUF at NO | home | +7 | -112 | 31-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W11 NE at ATL | home | +7 | +101 | 25-0 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W10 BAL at MIA | home | +8.5 | -104 | 10-22 | win | +0.96u |
| 2021 W10 BUF at NYJ | home | +13 | -111 | 45-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W10 TB at WAS | home | +10 | -117 | 19-29 | win | +0.85u |
| 2021 W9 BUF at JAX | home | +14.5 | +109 | 6-9 | win | +1.09u |
| 2021 W8 CIN at NYJ | home | +11.5 | -105 | 31-34 | win | +0.95u |
| 2021 W8 LA at HOU | home | +17 | -118 | 38-22 | win | +0.85u |
| 2021 W6 LA at NYG | home | +7.5 | -118 | 38-11 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W6 TB at PHI | home | +7 | -114 | 28-22 | win | +0.88u |
| 2021 W5 NE at HOU | home | +8 | -112 | 25-22 | win | +0.89u |
| 2021 W4 KC at PHI | home | +7.5 | -112 | 42-30 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W3 ARI at JAX | home | +8 | -110 | 31-19 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W3 BAL at DET | home | +7.5 | -110 | 19-17 | win | +0.91u |
| 2021 W3 CAR at HOU | home | +8 | +104 | 24-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2021 W1 SF at DET | home | +9.5 | -105 | 41-33 | win | +0.95u |
| 2020 W17 BAL at CIN | home | +13.5 | -117 | 38-3 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W17 LAC at KC | home | +7 | -117 | 38-21 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W17 SEA at SF | home | +7 | -112 | 26-23 | win | +0.89u |
| 2020 W17 TEN at HOU | home | +7 | -111 | 41-38 | win | +0.90u |
| 2020 W16 BUF at NE | home | +7 | -108 | 38-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W16 CHI at JAX | home | +9.5 | -103 | 41-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W16 TB at DET | home | +12 | -111 | 47-7 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W15 PIT at CIN | home | +14.5 | -109 | 17-27 | win | +0.92u |
| 2020 W14 GB at DET | home | +9.5 | -117 | 31-24 | win | +0.85u |
| 2020 W14 KC at MIA | home | +7.5 | -121 | 33-27 | win | +0.83u |
| 2020 W14 NO at PHI | home | +7.5 | -106 | 21-24 | win | +0.94u |
| 2020 W14 TEN at JAX | home | +7.5 | -104 | 31-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W13 LV at NYJ | home | +7.5 | -113 | 31-28 | win | +0.89u |
| 2020 W12 CLE at JAX | home | +7.5 | -112 | 27-25 | win | +0.89u |
| 2020 W12 MIA at NYJ | home | +7.5 | -104 | 20-3 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W12 NO at DEN | home | +17 | -107 | 31-3 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W11 KC at LV | home | +7.5 | -102 | 35-31 | win | +0.98u |
| 2020 W11 PIT at JAX | home | +11 | -107 | 27-3 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W10 BAL at NE | home | +7 | -110 | 17-23 | win | +0.91u |
| 2020 W9 HOU at JAX | home | +7 | -117 | 27-25 | win | +0.85u |
| 2020 W9 NE at NYJ | home | +9.5 | -113 | 30-27 | win | +0.89u |
| 2020 W9 PIT at DAL | home | +14 | -110 | 24-19 | win | +0.91u |
| 2020 W8 TB at NYG | home | +13 | -115 | 25-23 | win | +0.87u |
| 2020 W8 TEN at CIN | home | +7.5 | -118 | 20-31 | win | +0.85u |
| 2020 W7 BUF at NYJ | home | +9.5 | -111 | 18-10 | win | +0.90u |
| 2020 W7 KC at DEN | home | +7 | -113 | 43-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W6 BAL at PHI | home | +10.5 | -119 | 30-28 | win | +0.84u |
| 2020 W5 ARI at NYJ | home | +7 | -117 | 30-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W5 LA at WAS | home | +7 | -109 | 30-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W4 BAL at WAS | home | +14.5 | -115 | 31-17 | win | +0.87u |
| 2020 W2 BAL at HOU | home | +7.5 | -108 | 33-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W2 KC at LAC | home | +8.5 | -106 | 23-20 | win | +0.94u |
| 2020 W2 SF at NYJ | home | +7 | -111 | 31-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2020 W1 IND at JAX | home | +7 | -102 | 20-27 | win | +0.98u |
| 2019 W17 GB at DET | home | +13.5 | -114 | 23-20 | win | +0.88u |
| 2019 W17 NO at CAR | home | +13.5 | -104 | 42-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W17 TEN at HOU | home | +10 | -117 | 35-14 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W16 BAL at CLE | home | +9.5 | -106 | 31-15 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W15 NE at CIN | home | +10.5 | -110 | 34-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W15 PHI at WAS | home | +7 | -116 | 37-27 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W13 NO at ATL | home | +7 | -104 | 26-18 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W13 PHI at MIA | home | +10.5 | -110 | 31-37 | win | +0.91u |
| 2019 W11 BUF at MIA | home | +7 | -101 | 37-20 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W11 DAL at DET | home | +7.5 | -113 | 35-27 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W10 BAL at CIN | home | +10.5 | -114 | 49-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W9 SF at ARI | home | +10.5 | -111 | 28-25 | win | +0.90u |
| 2019 W8 SEA at ATL | home | +7.5 | -117 | 27-20 | win | +0.85u |
| 2019 W7 NE at NYJ | home | +9.5 | -104 | 33-0 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W7 SF at WAS | home | +10 | -106 | 9-0 | win | +0.94u |
| 2019 W6 DAL at NYJ | home | +7 | -110 | 22-24 | win | +0.91u |
| 2019 W5 NE at WAS | home | +15.5 | +101 | 33-7 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W4 KC at DET | home | +7.5 | -116 | 34-30 | win | +0.86u |
| 2019 W4 LAC at MIA | home | +15 | -107 | 30-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W4 NE at BUF | home | +7 | -108 | 16-10 | win | +0.93u |
| 2019 W2 KC at OAK | home | +7 | -119 | 28-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W2 NE at MIA | home | +18 | -109 | 43-0 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2019 W1 BAL at MIA | home | +7 | -112 | 59-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W17 LAC at DEN | home | +7 | -119 | 23-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W16 LA at ARI | home | +14.5 | -130 | 31-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W15 HOU at NYJ | home | +7 | -119 | 29-22 | push | +0.00u |
| 2018 W14 NE at MIA | home | +8.5 | -108 | 33-34 | win | +0.93u |
| 2018 W14 NO at TB | home | +8.5 | -108 | 28-14 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W14 PIT at OAK | home | +10.5 | -133 | 21-24 | win | +0.75u |
| 2018 W13 KC at OAK | home | +14 | -112 | 40-33 | win | +0.89u |
| 2018 W13 LA at DET | home | +10.5 | -114 | 30-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W13 NO at DAL | home | +7 | -103 | 10-13 | win | +0.97u |
| 2018 W12 NE at NYJ | home | +13 | -121 | 27-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W10 LAC at OAK | home | +10.5 | -116 | 20-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W9 CHI at BUF | home | +10.5 | -125 | 41-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W9 KC at CLE | home | +7.5 | -101 | 37-21 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W8 NE at BUF | home | +13.5 | -103 | 25-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W7 LA at SF | home | +8 | -101 | 39-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2018 W6 CHI at MIA | home | +7.5 | -123 | 28-31 | win | +0.81u |
| 2018 W6 LA at DEN | home | +7 | -108 | 23-20 | win | +0.93u |
| 2018 W5 LA at SEA | home | +7.5 | -113 | 33-31 | win | +0.89u |
| 2018 W3 NE at DET | home | +7 | -120 | 10-26 | win | +0.83u |
| 2018 W2 LAC at BUF | home | +7.5 | -115 | 31-20 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W16 LAC at NYJ | home | +7.5 | -117 | 14-7 | win | +0.85u |
| 2017 W16 MIN at GB | home | +8.5 | -110 | 16-0 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W16 PIT at HOU | home | +8 | -107 | 34-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W15 ATL at TB | home | +7 | -105 | 24-21 | win | +0.95u |
| 2017 W15 PHI at NYG | home | +7.5 | -119 | 34-29 | win | +0.84u |
| 2017 W14 NE at MIA | home | +10 | -106 | 20-27 | win | +0.94u |
| 2017 W13 LA at ARI | home | +7.5 | -117 | 32-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W13 NE at BUF | home | +7.5 | -115 | 23-3 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W12 SEA at SF | home | +7 | -117 | 24-13 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W11 JAX at CLE | home | +7.5 | -113 | 19-7 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W11 KC at NYG | home | +10 | -119 | 9-12 | win | +0.84u |
| 2017 W11 NE at OAK | home | +7 | -109 | 33-8 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W10 NE at DEN | home | +7 | -123 | 41-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W10 PIT at IND | home | +10.5 | -100 | 20-17 | win | +1.00u |
| 2017 W8 MIN at CLE | home | +11 | -102 | 33-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2017 W6 NE at NYJ | home | +9 | -105 | 24-17 | win | +0.95u |
| 2017 W3 PIT at CHI | home | +7 | -117 | 17-23 | win | +0.85u |
| 2017 W2 ARI at IND | home | +7 | -117 | 16-13 | win | +0.85u |
| 2017 W1 PIT at CLE | home | +10 | -108 | 21-18 | win | +0.93u |
| 2016 W17 ARI at LA | home | +7 | -113 | 44-6 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W17 NE at MIA | home | +7.5 | +102 | 35-14 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W17 SEA at SF | home | +11.5 | -113 | 25-23 | win | +0.89u |
| 2016 W12 NE at NYJ | home | +9 | -110 | 22-17 | win | +0.91u |
| 2016 W12 PIT at IND | home | +8 | -109 | 28-7 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W11 NE at SF | home | +10.5 | -110 | 30-17 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W11 PIT at CLE | home | +8 | -119 | 24-9 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W9 DAL at CLE | home | +7 | -110 | 35-10 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W7 NE at PIT | home | +7.5 | -123 | 27-16 | loss | -1.00u |
| 2016 W6 PIT at MIA | home | +7.5 | -117 | 15-30 | win | +0.85u |
| 2016 W5 NE at CLE | home | +10 | -110 | 33-13 | loss | -1.00u |
Backtest and holdout are graded at the closing consensus line and price (nflverse). Live plays are graded at the best line any book posted for that side when the play was flagged, then the best price at that line, so the two are not the same measure and are never added together. Units are at 1 unit flat; a push returns the stake.
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